As the Iran conflict unfolds, Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic that it could end within about a month, aligning with President Donald Trump’s projected timeline for resolving the crisis, said J.P. Morgan.
According to the bank, Wall Street is currently banking on the “TACO” trade, an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out”. This strategy has proven successful in the past, particularly with Trump’s often-reversed aggressive foreign policy on tariffs. Some investors see the Iran conflict as a potential “buy-the-dip” opportunity, expecting asset prices to rebound once the conflict ends.
Jacob Manoukian, U.S. head of investment strategy for J.P. Morgan Private Bank and Wealth Management, however, warns that betting on the TACO trade with Iran could be riskier than previous instances. Manoukian told Fortune over the weekend that the main risk scenario Wall Street is trying to assess is that “global events have started,” but it remains unclear “where they’re going” or how they can be controlled.
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