It is being heralded as the greatest comeback in political history.Donald Trump is the first American president to be impeached twice, subsequently run for office again and then sweep all key battleground states. He secured more than 70 million votes to win the popular vote, won the Electoral College and is on track to control both chambers of Congress. Add a sympathetic Supreme Court to the mix, and the 47th president has a powerful mandate with few constraints. But what will Trump 2.0 look like? Will he start trade wars? How will he police the southern border? What about the war in Ukraine and the Middle East? Will he abandon alliances? Much remains to be seen about his domestic and foreign policy agenda but few expect business as usual. A reshaping of the world order is on the cards and expect winners and losers.Let’s take a closer look at Trump’s second term in officeImmigration A hardline immigration agenda was a central plank of Trump’s election campaign.He’s expected to implement these policies during his first few days in office. Trump has said repeatedly that on day 1, he will “seal” the southern border, hinting at the use of policies like Title 42 from his first term, which allowed for the expulsion of migrants on public health grounds.He has promised “the largest mass deportation program in history”, deporting an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants from the US using expedited removal processes which bypass traditional legal hearings.He plans to use the National Guard and potentially the military for this operation, arguing that undocumented immigrants “aren’t civilians” when considering the Posse Comitatus Act, which limits the powers of the federal government in using federal military personnel. Trump’s newly-appointed border Tzar, Tom Homan, will be tasked with enacting this policy and he has already signalled that he will steamroll Democrats to get these policies implemented. “I’ve seen some of these Democratic governors say they’re going to stand in the way. They’re going to make it hard for us,” the former head of immigration and customs enforcement told Fox News on Monday.“A suggestion: if you’re not going to help us, get the hell out of the way for we’re going to do it.“So, if we can’t get assistance from New York City, we may have to double the number of agents we send to New York City because we’re going to do the job. We’re going to do the job without you or with you.”Expect a blizzard of legal challenges. The National Immigrant Justice Center is already preparing. “We will continue our work of providing critical legal representation to immigrants and refugees, fighting to keep families together, defending access to asylum, and advocating for the end of arbitrary detention and unjust deportation,” Mary Meg McCarthy, the centre’s executive director, said in a statement.Other potential policies could include:Ending Birthright Citizenship: Trump has indicated he would seek to end automatic citizenship for children born to undocumented immigrants, challenging the long-standing interpretation of the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment, which might require a constitutional amendment.Reinstating Previous Policies: He plans to reinstate policies like “Remain in Mexico”, where asylum-seekers would wait in Mexico for their US court dates. Additionally, he aims to revive the Title 42 policy, which allowed for quick expulsion of migrants on public health grounds.Border Security and Wall Construction: Continuing with his campaign promise, Trump intends to further build and complete the border wall along the US-Mexico border, potentially redirecting military funds to do so if Congress does not provide sufficient appropriations.Legal Immigration Changes: While campaigning, Trump has mentioned expanding legal immigration for those who enter the country legally, suggesting a focus on legal pathways for immigration. However, his administration has historically aimed to reduce overall immigration numbers, including legal entries, through various means like executive orders and legislative proposals.Workplace Raids: Trump’s strategy includes increasing workplace raids to enforce immigration laws, aiming to deter unauthorized employment and shift the labour market dynamics towards American workers, though this has been criticized for causing economic disruption and fear among immigrant communities.Ideological Screening: There have been mentions of implementing ideological screenings for new immigrants, aiming to ensure alignment with certain values or ideologies before granting entry.DACA and Other Programs: Trump has indicated plans to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program once and for all, alongside potentially revoking other temporary protection statuses for immigrants from various countries.Filling the Supreme Court During his first term, Trump appointed three justices to the US Supreme Court: Neil Gorsuch in 2017, Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, and Amy Coney Barrett in 2020.If he were to appoint two more justices in a second term, it would mean that five out of the nine justices on the court would be his appointees. This scenario would create a conservative majority on the court, potentially influencing American jurisprudence for several decades due to the lifetime tenure of justices. Given the ages and potential retirement considerations of Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, there’s speculation that Trump might have the opportunity to replace them with younger conservative justices, further solidifying this shift. This move could align with a broader strategy to influence judicial outcomes on critical issues like abortion, gun rights, and regulatory powers of the government for an extended period.The Supreme Court has already granted Trump broad immunity from prosecution for actions related to his official presidential duties. Appointing two more justices could embolden him to pursue an aggressive agenda with less fear of legal repercussions, altering the balance of power and potentially expanding executive authority.He’s also expected to use his constitutional right to pardon the January 6 rioters, who he claims have been unfairly treated by the legal system. He has referred to these individuals as “hostages”. A new era mercantilism Trump is expected to turbocharge the American economy through tax cuts, deregulation and slapping universal tariffs on imports.This expectation has strengthened the dollar significantly against other currencies and led to a rise in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping to around 4.48 per cent in the days following Trump’s victory. All three major Wall Street stock indexes surged to record-high closes on Monday after investors rallied behind the business-friendly Republican.Trump’s pivot to what he calls “patriotic protectionism” will send shockwaves through financial markets as the US dollar is involved in more than 40 per cent of global trade. He has suggested imposing a universal tariff of 10 per cent to 20 per cent on all imports entering the US. China is expected to bear the brunt, with Trump proposing tariffs as high as 60 per cent on products. This approach aims to shield domestic industries but could potentially increase costs for American consumers and businesses.Trump’s big bet is that the revenue from these tariffs will offset tax cuts and reduce the federal deficit.However, economists indicate that while tariffs would raise some revenue, they would not be sufficient to cover the entirety of his proposed tax cuts or to significantly reduce the national debt.Trump also risks starting a trade war as countries retaliate with tariffs of their own. This could increase prices for consumers (effectively acting as a tax on consumers) and trigger inflation, which might necessitate higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve to tame it.Under this scenario, the Fed is unlikely to continue cutting its key interest rate.Tellingly, Jerome Powell, its chairman, has indicated that the Fed would consider holding interest rates steady at its December meeting, rather than continuing to cut them.Trump defends the use of universal tariffs, claiming they draw a “ring around the country”, and is adamant that they would not be inflationary.He’s expected to use them as a bargaining chip to secure bilateral trade deals with countries he favours, such as the UK. A Trump source has already said that a special UK-US deal is under consideration. LATEST MEMBERSHIP DEVELOPMENTS Trump just moved to ‘make American children safer’ How Keir Starmer is picking up tips from Donald TrumpMeet the man Trump is betting the farm onUkraineTrump’s approach to the war in Ukraine is much more vague, and this is causing consternation in Europe at a time when morale on the battlefield is low and Russia is steadily advancing.During a CNN town hall last year, he promised to end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” but it is unclear how he plans to do that. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky wasted no time in congratulating Trump on his victory, commending his “peace through strength” approach in global affairs, adding: “We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership. We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.”This was read as an exhortation to Trump as he faces pressure from the “America First” wing of the Republican Party to stop providing further aid to Ukraine.This group questions the strategic value of US involvement in Ukraine, prioritising domestic issues like border security over international commitments.Adding to Zelensky’s anxiety is Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, who has been vocal about his opposition to sending financial and military aid to Ukraine, arguing that the US cannot supply Ukraine with enough weapons to win the war against Russia. He has proposed freezing the conflict along the current lines of control and creating a demilitarized zone, with Ukraine remaining independent but neutral in terms of not joining NATO or other Western alliances.Zelensky is much more receptive to the peace plan proposed by Mike Pompeo, the former US Secretary of State under Trump.In his co-authored op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, he proposed sending substantial military aid to Ukraine to ensure it could defend itself against future Russian aggression. The plan also envisions fast-tracking Ukraine’s membership into both NATO and the European Union and funding Ukraine’s reconstruction using frozen Russian assets.Regardless of whether Vance or Pompeo’s vision for Ukraine wins out, European leaders are beefing up NATO and discussions around “European strategic autonomy” are back on the menu as America turns inward.IsraelTrump has promised to stand with Israel “100% without any qualifications”, suggesting a continuation of his first-term policy of strong diplomatic backing for Israel.The country has conducted widespread air strikes on Gaza and initiated a ground invasion after Hamas burst through the border fence on October 7 last year, killing around 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages.Israel has traded rockets with Iran’s proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen in the months since.Trump has urged Israel to “finish the job” with respect to dealing with Hamas, though he has not detailed how this should be achieved or what the aftermath of such actions would entail in terms of policy or peace agreements.Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he has spoken to the US president-elect three times since the election and that both “see eye to eye on the Iranian threat”This implies a return to the aggressive posture that Trump adopted on Iran during his first term. Trump’s previous policy was characterised by putting “maximum pressure” on Iran, which involved exiting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal and putting crippling sanctions in its place. Trump has already expressed intentions to reinstate these sanctions on Iran to severely restrict the country’s oil exports and access to international finance, thereby hobbling its regime economically.
