Summary
- Democrats are optimistic about the 2024 election, but data suggests that Kamala Harris is not polling as well against Donald Trump as previous Democratic candidates did at a similar point.
- Historical data shows that Harris is not polling high enough nationally to secure a victory, especially in key states like Arizona where she is performing worse with key voter groups compared to Biden in 2020.
- There may be a miscalculation by Democrats in attacking Trump with legal actions, as it could actually boost his support among disaffected voters.
- Presidential debates are high-risk events, and Harris may benefit more from having fewer debates closer to the election.
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- The economy and immigration are key priorities for voters
- Many Americans are struggling due to rising costs, impacting their ability to own a home
- RFK Jr. endorsing Trump could benefit him significantly in battleground states like Pennsylvania
- Winning Pennsylvania is crucial for Kamala Harris in the upcoming election
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- Democrats may feel better running for Congress without Biden at the top of the ticket
- Republicans are optimistic about gaining a majority in the Senate
- Montana and Maryland are key states to watch for potential Republican victories in Senate races
- Republicans are likely to have 52 or more seats in the Senate