By Michele Maresca
The European Parliament yesterday approved a new European Commission, led by President Ursula von der Leyen, who is serving a second term after being re-elected in July. One of the key members of the new commission is former Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas, the incoming EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy.
To understand how this could affect EU-China relations, one should take into account the relationship between Beijing and Moscow and Kallas’ reaction to it.
“Without China’s support to Russia, it would not be able to continue its war with the same force. China needs to also feel a higher cost,” she said during a confirmation hearing in Brussels.
EU leaders have repeatedly condemned China for its support to Russia’s weapons production and providing Moscow with dual-use components identified by the US and the EU as “high priority” items necessary for Russia.
Kallas stressed that “China is now more a competitor and a systemic rival” and that “our dependencies towards China in key sectors are our vulnerability: We need to derisk.”
As Beijing becomes increasingly assertive regarding its claims toward Taiwan and in the South China Sea, the EU is set to deal with China through the lens of its relationship with Russia.
With Taiwan, Beijing’s main intention is to persuade the EU member states’ populations that “Taipei is China’s internal affair.”
This narrative aims to widen the divide between European voters and elected officials.
It is imperative then to increase the EU population’s awareness of the linkage between Taiwan and Ukraine, united by a common struggle for sovereignty and territorial integrity against an authoritarian state.
In terms of EU-China relations, another key appointee is Italian Minister of European Affairs Raffaele Fitto, who has been selected as the next executive vice president for cohesion and reforms.
Fitto, the former cochairman of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group, has previously spoken out against China’s unfair competition and its influence activities in Africa.
In 2016 he voted against recognizing the “market economy status for China” by arguing that otherwise “trade defense measures would no longer be possible,” a scenario that he said would have “disastrous consequences for our industry.”
With regard to Europe’s approach toward Africa, Fitto in 2022 spoke in terms of the EU’s immigration vision and called for a new strategy.
In his view, EU states should tackle migration with a “broader vision” to “understand the current situation in Africa.” It would lay the groundwork for Europe to “play a stronger role to counteract China’s influence in the continent.”
The shift in EU-China relations is exemplified by European Commission executive vice president-designate for clean, just and competitive transition Teresa Ribera’s U-turn on the EU’s decision to impose duties on electric vehicles (EVs) produced in China.
Ribera has gone from supporting Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s opposition to imposing duties on Chinese EVs to backing the decision to “preserve the EU production capacity in a sector that is crucial for the its green transition and climate goals.”
In her replies to European Parliament members’ questions on Oct. 22, Ribera stated that the proposed duties of up to 35.3 percent on electric vehicles manufactured in China “are based on evidence and have been applied in line with WTO rules.”
As the European Commission prepares to take office on Sunday, the commissioners-designate and their vision signal a firmer China policy, at least in the medium term, compared with the past.
Michele Maresca is an analyst at the online international law journal Il Caffe Geopolitico and the thinktank Geopol 21.
