Taking a Stand on Adversaries Influence in the Western Hemisphere

THE BLUF: The January 3rd Operation Absolute Resolve ousted Venezuelan Dictator Nicholas Maduro but the full consequences of the US operation continue to play out. With that move, the subsequent Shield of America’s coalition, and apparent blockade of Cuba, the Trump administration has made one message clear to the world and that is that the US is pushing back on adversaries’ influence in the western hemisphere. This is a vast change from the last twenty or so years where we watched US influence in the region, especially Venezuela, wane amid an increase in Chinese, Russian, and Iranian influence. The US administration’s 2025 National Security strategy forewarned of this policy change with the call for the US to renew the Monroe Doctrine which the last administration put aside. The 1823 doctrine says the United States would reject other countries’ influence in Latin America.Strategic CompetitionOver the last twenty years or so, China has made the most inroads in Latin America. China started enhancing its relationships in the region through trade and infrastructure building which many dismissed as just global economics. Over time, China branched out to other fields to include selling weapons systems, buying minerals, allegedly building spying stations in Cuba, building regional infrastructure to include communications, and strengthening diplomatic ties.· China started its run for dominance in the region by acquiring the ports at either end of the Panama Canal and later, by acquiring the largest freight port in the hemisphere in the Bahamas.· China’s largest nondomestic space facility is located in Argentina’s Patagonian Desert. In February 2026, the House Select Committee on China reported that their investigation uncovered that China has developed an extensive network of dual-use space ground stations and telescopes across Latin America and uses this network to collect intelligence and boost the PLA’s warfighting capacity. The investigation found at least eleven China-linked space facilities established across Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, and Brazil.· In December 2025, China released a new LATAM Policy paper that underscored the significance of the region to China and laid out new programs for closer cooperation on all fronts.With the exception of Venezuela and Cuba, Russia has had less success in building influence in the region. However, its military-to-military relationship with Venezuela prior to the US extracting Maduro in January was robust.· Russian Su-30MK2 fighter jets were a key part of the Venezuelan Air Force. Venezuela also had Russian S-300VM (Antey-2500) battalions, Pantsir-S1, and Buk-M2E.· According to Reuters, Wagner Group members were in Caracas in 2019 to provide security for President Maduro following protests against his regime. Members of the group also trained elite combat units in Venezuela and were spotted in Venezuela as recently as 2024.· The 2025 Joint Strategic Partnership Initiative between Russia and Venezuela reaffirmed their intent to coordinate under the OPEC+ framework, avoid predatory competition, and jointly stabilize global energy markets, coordinate on communications and counterterrorism. The document also envisaged closer cooperation between Russia and Venezuela at the United Nations and other international organizations and in the area of arms control, along with joint opposition to the imposition of unilateral sanctions.· In October 2025, Maduro himself said publicly that Venezuela had more the 5,000 IGLA-S surface to air missiles positioned around the country.Iranian influence in the region is less robust than that of the other adversaries and focused on evading sanctions and financial support to its proxy groups, especially Hizballah.· Petkaap III fast attack boat, CM-90 anti-ship missiles, GPS jammers, and passive detection systems are the most visible aspects of Venezuela’s ties with Iran.· In the past two decades, Venezuela and Iran deepened their ties with increasing industrial, economic, and military cooperation that includes fast-attack boats, anti-ship missiles, drones, and even a Hizballah presence. · Iranian-made drones were reportedly being produced in Venezuela, and Iranian-designed fast-attack naval vessels have also appeared. Caracas began with the “Arpía-001” surveillance UAV in early 2012 and quickly graduated, with Iranian help, to the EANSA assembly line beside El Libertador Air Base. Imagery and leaked purchase orders indicate a yearly output of approximately 50 Mohajer-2 derivatives (ANSU-100) and sub-kits for the stealthier Shahed-171 clone (ANSU-200).· In 2023, Brazil’s “Operation Trapiche” exposed a Hezbollah cell planning attacks against Jewish sites in São Paulo, with agents trained in Lebanon and employing local criminals for plausible deniability.· In 2024, Peruvian authorities arrested an Iranian Quds Force officer, Majid Azizi, for planning assassinations of Israeli citizens during a summit in Lima.Why it MattersThroughout the Soviet period, the US was aware of the Soviet Union’s Active Measures campaign in the Western Hemisphere and sometimes clashed with the Soviets over it. The two superpowers played proxy wars for influence throughout the region, funding political parties, sending in arms, and in some cases, inciting revolutions. With the breakup of the Soviet Union, the US ignored the ongoing competition in its own hemisphere and US primacy faded. With increased awareness of the grey zone and cognitive warfare activity against the US worldwide, there is renewed interest in securing this hemisphere. Our ability to establish secure borders depends on having strong and friendly neighbors. To do this we need a combination of good trade, diplomacy, and a persistent intelligence capability that will alert the US and our neighbors as to what our adversaries are doing in the grey zone. ConclusionMultiple US administrations have turned a blind eye to our adversaries gaining influence into this hemisphere. Historically, we have ignored their activities or explained them away as merely open trade. This has resulted in security threats near our borders. We have allowed these adversaries to compromise our supply lines, our communications, and our transportation routes. This puts them in position to both gather important information and cutoff our accesses if they choose. This post Absolute Resolve moment gives the US the opportunity to put our adversaries on notice that the US will not stand by and allow them to infiltrate the US through its neighbors. We know that the US can be a better partner than its adversaries. We need to double down and prove that to our neighbors while standing firm that we will not allow those adversaries to infringe on our resource and supply routes. It will take more than might to bring our neighbors around but steady diplomatic interaction and partnering will ensure that the US redevelops the robust relationships that should be our primary focus in the Western Hemisphere.The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to [email protected] for publication consideration.Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief

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