A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire on Tuesday, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, Donald Trump’s rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not meet his demand
Iran-US truce on brink as Israel pounds Lebanon, Tehran warns of escalation
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