Cryptocurrency bettors remain unconvinced that vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of the month despite President Donald Trump hinting at winding down the Iran campaign.
Will Normalcy Return To Global Oil Trade?
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket shows 23% chance of normal traffic resuming on the critical oil shipping route by April 30, up 3 percentage points in the last 24 hours, but down 16 points over the week. The chance of this happening by May 30, however, was higher at 37%.
Nearly $1 million has been wagered on this keenly watched bet. The market resolves to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the route of at least 60.
Based on data up to March 29, the 7-day moving average was only 3.
No Trend, No Divergence: The Prerequisite for Identifying Exhaustion
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