Mojtaba Khamenei was reportedly ruled out as a successor by his father (Picture: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in one of the first missile strikes launched by the US and Israel in their war on Iran, he was 86 years old and in poor health.
So it’s likely top officials in the country already had succession plans in place in case of his demise – even if they probably didn’t predict how it would happen.
But the intriguing pick that appears to have emerged suggests those plans may have had to be rethought since chaos exploded across the region.
The New York Times has reported that the leading candidate to step in as Supreme Leader is Mojtaba Khamenei, the second-eldest son of the dead ayatollah.
Dr Christian Emery, an associate professor in international politics at University College London, told Metro the choice would not be without controversy.
He said: ‘He is reportedly extremely influential inside Iran but working against him is both his lack of government experience and the political and clerical establishment’s fear that returning to hereditary rule would undermine the Iranian Revolution’s founding principle of no more Shahs.’
According to the BBC, Ali Khamenei is believed to have ruled out Mojtaba as a successor several years ago, warning against a hereditary process.
Ali Khamenei was 86 when he was killed on Saturday (PIcture: Pool/Iranian Religious Leader Press Office/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
However, the younger Khamenei is thought to have close links with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – and his selection would suggest the IRGC is becoming increasingly influential in mid-conflict Iran.
Professor Emery said this relationship was forged by Khamenei’s service during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, which forms a ‘core part of the Islamic Republic’s identity’.
His appointment as Supreme Leader would ensure the ‘enormous economic and political powerbase’ built up by the IRGC during Ali Khamenei’s tenure would continue to go unchallenged, he added.
And it would provide little comfort to the victims of the brutal crackdown on protests earlier this year, as Mojtaba is believed to have been a key architect of the regime’s response.
Meanwhile, the decision would also make him a key target for assassination.
In a post on X this morning, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said the new Supreme Leader would be ‘an unequivocal target for elimination. It does not matter what his name is or the place where he hides’.
This threat could hit particularly close to home for Mujtaba Khamenei – alongside his father, he also lost his wife, Zahra Adel; his mother, Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh; and a son in Saturday’s strikes.
How is Iran’s new Supreme Leader chosen?
In the 47 years since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, there have only been two Supreme Leaders of Iran.
The first was Ruhollah Khomeini, who ruled for nine-and-a-half years until 1989. Ali Khamenei was the second.
(As a sidenote, the title of Ayatollah does not automatically come with the role. It simply means a high-ranking Shiite leader – Khomeini already was one when he became Supreme Leader, while Khamenei was given the title afterwards to help shore up his legitimacy.)
A satellite image showing black smoke rising and heavy damage at Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound last Saturday (Picture: Reuters)
The Iranian Constitution sets out the process for selecting the new one.
It’s all down to the Assembly of Experts, a body elected by the Iranian public every eight years which is made up of 88 clerics.
Within the Assembly, there’s a smaller committee that picks out a list of acceptable candidates to whittle down the choice for the rest of the members.
‘It’s almost certain that this was done long before the current war,’ Professor Emery said.
Now Khamenei is dead, the constitution dictates the Assembly must elect a successor by majority vote ‘as soon as possible’ – something that would usually be made simple by all the groundwork.
Professor Emery explained: ‘Khamenei’s own elevation was so carefully choreographed that it took the Assembly of Experts only 24 hours to elect him.’
However, he added that it is ‘very unclear how the Assembly of Experts can formally convene’ when such a gathering would provide Israel and the US with a golden opportunity to wipe out more of Iran’s leadership.
Who else is in the running to become Supreme Leader of Iran?
These are the other most likely candidates for the new Supreme Leader of Iran according to Professor Emery – and what impact he believes they would have.
Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i has been the Chief Justice of Iran since 2021(Picture: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i is currently one of the three leaders standing in as the country’s interim governing council.
‘An extreme hardliner, he is notorious for being the key judicial figure responsible for the mass executions and brutal crackdown on protesters during the January anti-government protests.
‘As such, his appointment as Supreme Leader would potentially incite more public rage.’
Hassan Khomeini
Hassan Khomeini would provide a link to the leader of the 1979 Revolution (Picture: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
‘The grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic and its first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
‘Hassan Khomeini may be as close to a stabilising option as the regime can get.
‘He has the Khomeini family name and links to both reformist and conservative factions and is reportedly also respected by the powerful Revolutionary Guards.
‘He is seen as somewhat of a moderate, although that remains a very relative term amongst all the potential candidates given their loyalty to such a brutal and corrupt system.’
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi meeting Pope Francis at the Vatican in 2022 (Picture: Reuters)
‘A member of the Guardian Council since 2019 and of the Assembly of Experts since 2022.
‘He has the clerical standing and his influence was seen when he was appointed to the country’s interim governing council.
‘He would likely be seen as a safe pair of hands who would largely continue Khamenei’s agenda and not challenge the power of the Revolutionary Guard.’
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