While Washington Looks to Iran, Putin Gains Ground

OPINION – After the joint U.S. – Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear program last June and after the spectacular raid that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, U.S. President Donald Trump must have begun to feel like the ruler of the world.“For he was ruler of the world and he knew not what to do. But he would think of something.” —Arthur C. Clarke, 2001: A Space OdysseyHe then thought of something to do: unite again with Israel and finish the job with Iran. This time, the end result is not yet clear and the result could end up looking a lot more like Iraq than Venezuela. It’s not that the Iranian regime didn’t have it coming. The heinous regime led by Ayatollah Khamenei has been the sponsor of terrorism and regional instability in the Middle East for decades. The leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran was unrepentantly hostile to the U.S. and Israel, the latter a target of Iran for extermination. It also had a program intent on developing a nuclear weapon, despite Iranian statements to the contrary.It is also well and good that Maduro is in prison in the U.S. and Iran’s capability to build a nuclear weapon and engage in regional and global terrorism is being diminished and perhaps ultimately eliminated. But the opportunity cost of this is significant in that the operation against Iran has diverted resources that could have been available to support Ukraine, which is effectively, the front line of the defense of Europe and the main bulwark against the expansionist ambitions of the man at the center of a global effort against the U.S. and the West.The reality is that the other presumed ruler of the world – at least in his own mind – Russian President Vladimir Putin – is seeing his world get smaller and smaller. The system of alliances he so carefully nurtured as he tried to re-claim for Russia a place at the rank of superpower, has shrunk materially. This alliance was given the ambitious label of the “Axis of Resistance.” The authors of that label were apparently not too familiar with the fate of the last major “Axis,” Germany, Italy, and Japan. The fate of some members of the current axis has already been decided, with Syria’s Assad in exile in Moscow, Ayatollah Khamenei deceased, and the Islamic Republic under concentrated assault from the U.S. and Israel. Putin and Russia embarrassingly, remain on the sidelines.In addition to the strategic setbacks Putin’s Ukraine invasion has caused the Russian Federation, (Sweden and Finland joining NATO and that organization having been given new purpose and vision) the invasion has cost Russia a staggering number of casualties estimated by some at approaching 1.5 million soldiers killed, wounded, captured or missing. An example of which is the reportedly 8,700 casualties last week alone as the price of capturing roughly 28 kilometers of Ukrainian territory. These losses are the early cost of Russia’s Spring-Summer offensive which is expected to include mobilized troops as Putin is no longer able to buy enough volunteers to fill the depleted ranks of the Russian army.For its part, Ukraine seems to be militarily holding its own, even recapturing some territory during counteroffensives in southern Ukraine as well as continuing to demonstrate the ability through missile or drone attacks to strike military and economic targets deep in the territory of the Russian Federation.There is increasing evidence that things on the domestic front are becoming more difficult for the “moth” as Putin is quietly and derisively called in some circles in Russia. Russia has had to resort to conscription on a year round system and has significantly increased the penalties for draft evasion and although Russian law prevents the deployment of untrained conscripts to war zones, draftees are pressured to sign contracts for service in Ukraine. Closer to Moscow, another Russian general, this time a commander of the Russian Air Force, Sergei Kobylash, died after falling out of a window in early 2026. His was the latest in a series of mysterious deaths of senior Russian military officers in recent years. Also to be noted, is the shooting in Moscow of the Deputy Head of Russian military intelligence (GRU) Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev in a residential building in Moscow.Alekseyev was allegedly involved in the attack on Sergei Skripal in the UK and he was one of the officials who negotiated with Yevgeny Prigozhin after the latter’s Wagner Group mutiny. If you are a senior Russian military official, one would think you would be starting to wonder about the direction your President is taking your country or, more personally, if you will be the next to fall out of a window or be shot when leaving your apartment building.If there is going to be regime change in Russia, it likely needs to come from these ranks.Even some formerly ardent supporters of Putin and his invasion of Ukraine are starting to speak out against the regime. Ilya Remesto, a well known Russian blogger, propagandist, and lawyer who was in part responsible for the persecution and conviction of Alexei Navalny, suddenly published a Telegram post titled: “Five reasons why I stopped supporting Vladimir Putin.” He has since reportedly been hospitalized at a Psychiatric Hospital in St. Petersburg. One might hope he has a room on the ground floor. The circle of advisors around Putin was also reduced with the resignation last September of Dmitri Kozak, the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Kremlin, due to his opposition to the war in Ukraine, and the very recent retirement for health reasons, of former Minister of Defense and long time Putin associate Sergey Ivanov.Two other recent developments of note in assessing the state of play at the center of the Kremlin: Vladimir Putin’s public appearances have been dramatically reduced in recent weeks with several absences of longer than a week having been noted. There is speculation the absences are health related but there is also increasing speculation in Russia and abroad that Putin is concerned for his own security taking extra precautions. This could be similar to Putin’s seeming paranoia during the COVID crisis. The second is the shutting down of the internet in Moscow and elsewhere in the Russian Federation for “security reasons.” This shutdown has had meaningful economic consequences in the Moscow region and has caused understandable social discontent. A reflection of that could be the appearance on Russian state television of satires about how life is better without the internet.Here’s my issue with where we are today. As a former Intelligence Officer, I’m seeing signals that the President of the U.S. does not seem to recognize who the guiding forces are in the global effort to undermine the U.S. politically and economically. If he did, there would be much more pressure applied to the leaders of the Axis: Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. It is the former who has taken the lead in efforts to attack the U.S. and Europe, unleashing at various times, Russian intelligence operatives to conduct assassination and sabotage operations in Europe and elsewhere, as well as cyber probing and attacks on U.S. infrastructure and election integrity. Putin is at the very center of the web. His economy was starting to seriously feel the effects of sanctions, low oil prices and more concerted efforts to crack down on sanctions evasion and Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers carrying oil in violation of U.S. sanctions. The Iran conflict has led to concerns about oil supply and a rise in the price of crude oil. Unfortunately, instead of seeking to keep the pressure on Moscow, the President decided to lift some sanctions on Russian energy, resulting in a windfall of resources for the Russian dictator which will certainly be used to support his continued aggression in Ukraine.Kyiv, on the other hand, having survived devastating attacks against its energy infrastructure during the coldest winter in eastern Europe in decades, has stepped up to provide expertise and anti drone technology to assist the efforts by the U.S. to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This from a country that according to the U.S. President “had no cards.” Now Ukrainian anti-drone drones are the single most effective system in place to protect vital shipping lanes from Iranian drone attacks. At the same time, there are reports that Russia is providing intelligence to assist Iran in targeting U.S. forces in the region.The U.S. president and his national security team need to focus more energy on the real enemy and architect of the effort to undermine the U.S. and the West, Vladimir Putin. A near term first step might be rejecting Putin’s ridiculous offer to stop aiding Iran if the U.S. ceases aid to Ukraine. The president should also immediately re-impose the sanctions that were recently relaxed on Russian energy. Perhaps next, the president should message Russian elites and the Russian people about regime change. Maybe he will have better luck than he has with the Iranians. It’s certainly worth a try.The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to [email protected] for publication consideration.Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief

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