The US-Israeli war on Iran, launched on Feb. 28, has set the Middle East alight, threatening millions of people’s lives and livelihoods as the violence spreads in widening arc stretching from central Asia to the edge of Europe.
The joint operation, named “Epic Fury” by the US and “Roaring Lion” by Israel, has been sold as a high-impact show of intimidating power, but its impact so far beyond the chaos and bloodshed is unclear. What is certain is that predictions that this type of war would destabilize the region have indeed rapidly materialized.
What is the background to this war?
The red dots mark the strikes by Iran and its proxies, Feb. 28 – March 6. Blue dots: US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iraq. Green dots: Israeli strikes on Lebanon. 標紅點處為2月28日至3月6日伊朗及其代理人發動之攻擊。藍點：美國與以色列對伊朗及伊拉克之攻擊。綠點：以色列對黎巴嫩之攻擊。
Photo: screengrab from The Guardian 照片：擷圖自衛報網站
For decades, the regional powerhouse Iran, which views Israel and the US as its arch-enemies, has sought to spread its influence across the Middle East by backing militant groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. It has developed a nuclear program that it claims is for civil purposes. Washington disputes this and was in negotiations to limit Tehran’s nuclear ambitions up until Feb. 28, when it abandoned them and started bombing.
Israel’s longstanding regional policy — particularly towards Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Syria — has been to keep enemy forces “weak” through the regular use of overwhelming and destructive military power, including assassinations. The result has been the killing of tens of thousands of civilians, an abandonment of diplomacy and the hardening of global hatred against Israel. Senior figures in armed factions that Israel has killed are usually quickly replaced by deputies, while militant groups Israel has targeted have either rebuilt or been replaced by others.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been urging the US to seriously consider an attack on Iran for years and dismissed international agreements to put limits on Tehran’s nuclear program. Successive administrations in Washington have held back from this belligerent stance, with diplomats and Middle Eastern governments warning that — as well as being a blunt and ineffective tool to destroy a nuclear program — a bombing campaign on Iran would engulf the region. This is exactly what is playing out now.
First aid responders inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a neighborhood in the southern Lebanese village of Ghaziyeh on March 8. Lebanon was drawn into the Middle East war on March 2, when Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah attacked Israel in response to the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during US-Israeli strikes. 急救人員3月8日在黎巴嫩南部村莊加齊耶一處遭以色列空襲的社區勘查。黎巴嫩3月2日被捲入這場中東戰爭，伊朗支持的武裝組織真主黨為報復伊朗最高領袖哈米尼在美國與以色列聯合空襲中遭擊殺，而對以色列發動攻擊。
Photo: AFP 照片：法新社
As Donald Trump has said, no other US president “was willing to do what I was willing to do.”
Who is leading Iran now and what might come next?
On the first day of the war, the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei was killed. The regime immediately began working on a possible successor, appointing the dead ayatollah’s son Mojtaba as heir to the title on Monday.
A portrait of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the wreckage of a building destroyed by an Israeli airstrikes in Dahiyeh Beirut’s southern suburbs, Lebanon on March 8. 3月8日，在黎巴嫩南部貝魯特南郊達希耶，一棟遭以色列空襲摧毀的建築廢墟上，可見已故伊朗最高領袖哈米尼之肖像。
Photo: AP 照片：美聯社
So far, the government remains in control of the country’s armed forces and police. The big danger is a total state collapse, with regional powers fearing the big country could be fragmented.
Recent history shows US military operations that were initially celebrated as successes were later seen as failures, including the 2001 Afghanistan war and the 2003 Iraq war, which toppled the Taliban and then Iraqi president Saddam Hussein, only to lead to years of war and power vacuums.
How long can Iran afford to fight back for?
Iran’s conventional military is not comparable to that of the US and Israel, and it has a limited supply of missiles and drones. But the state has a long history of using asymmetric warfare, in which outmatched forces can conduct painful attacks against big military powers through paramilitary groups.
In launching attacks into multiple neighboring countries, Tehran’s retaliation has already created geopolitical and economic chaos. It has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which has choked global oil supplies, and its missiles and drones have cut world air travel.
(The Guardian)
2 月28日爆發的美國、以色列對伊朗戰爭，已使整個中東陷入戰火之中。隨著衝突不斷擴大，暴力行動從中亞一路蔓延至歐洲邊緣，威脅數百萬人的生命與生計。
這場由美國與以色列聯合發動的軍事行動，美方命名為「史詩之怒」（Epic Fury），以色列則稱為「咆哮雄獅」（Roaring Lion）。兩國將其塑造成一次震懾性的軍事力量展示，但除了已造成的混亂與流血之外，其實際影響仍難以判斷。可以確定的是，過去曾預測此類戰爭將導致該地區動盪，如今顯示的確如此。
戰爭之背景為何？
數十年來，中東地區強權伊朗一直將以色列與美國視為主要敵人，並透過支持武裝組織來擴大在中東的影響力，例如黎巴嫩的真主黨（Hezbollah）與葉門的胡塞武裝（Houthis）。伊朗同時也發展核計畫，並聲稱其目的在於民用。但華盛頓對此說法存疑，並一直與德黑蘭談判，試圖限制其核發展。但談判在2月28日破裂，美國隨即展開轟炸行動。
長期以來，以色列在中東地區的安全政策——特別是對伊朗、黎巴嫩、伊拉克、加薩、葉門與敘利亞——是透過經常使用壓倒性的軍事力量來讓敵對勢力一直處於「弱勢」的狀態，其中甚至包括暗殺行動。這種策略造成數萬名平民死亡，也使外交途徑逐漸被放棄，同時加深全球對以色列的敵意。即便以色列成功擊殺某些武裝組織高層，這些人物通常很快就會被副手取代；而遭打擊的武裝組織也往往能東山再起，或被新的組織所取代。
以色列總理納坦雅胡多年來一直敦促美國認真考慮攻擊伊朗，並對限制伊朗核計畫的國際協議抱持輕視態度。歷任美國政府多半避免採取如此強硬的立場，外交官與中東各國政府也多次警告，對伊朗進行轟炸不僅難以真正摧毀其核計畫，還可能使整個地區陷入戰火。
如今，這種情況正如外界先前所預測般發生。
正如美國前總統川普所說，沒有其他美國總統「願意做我肯做的事」。
伊朗現在由誰領導？後續可能之發展為何？
戰爭爆發的第一天，伊朗最高領袖哈米尼（Ali Khamenei）即遭擊殺。該政權立即開始物色可能的繼任者，並於週一任命哈米尼之子穆傑塔巴（Mojtaba Khamenei）為繼位者。
截至目前，政府仍掌控軍隊與警察。然而最令人擔憂的情況是國家全面崩潰，中東地區各國也擔心伊朗這大國可能因此分崩離析。
近代歷史顯示，美國一些最初被視為成功的軍事行動，後來往往被認為是失敗。例如2001年的阿富汗戰爭與2003年的伊拉克戰爭，雖然分別推翻了阿富汗塔利班政權與伊拉克總統海珊（Saddam Hussein），卻也導致長期戰爭與權力真空。
伊朗能反擊多久？
在傳統軍事力量方面，伊朗難以與美國與以色列相比，其飛彈與無人機數量也有限。但伊朗長期運用「不對稱戰爭」策略，也就是以準軍事組織來攻擊軍事強權，造成重創。
伊朗目前對多個鄰國發動報復性攻擊，已造成地緣政治與經濟上的混亂。例如伊朗實際上已封鎖荷莫茲海峽（Strait of Hormuz），導致全球石油供應受阻；同時其飛彈與無人機攻擊，也嚴重衝擊了全球航空運輸。
（台北時報林俐凱編譯）
