Two weeks in, the Trump administration continues to give conflicting assessments on Iran. Contradicting himself repeatedly in the span of hours, Donald Trump claimed on Monday the war was “very complete.” That calmed the markets. Later that afternoon, the Department of Defense said the opposite, posting on X that the U.S. had “only just begun to fight,” and promising “no mercy” from Secretary Pete Hegseth’s non- politically correct, rules-eschewing “lethality warriors.”Aside from fueling the scary impression that children are in charge of the arsenal, Hegseth’s continuing obsession with lethality blunts any strategic objectives the war was supposed to serve, not that those have ever been clear. The only certainty is that Trump, who doesn’t care about polls, does care about the price of oil. Once it passed $120 a barrel, a flashing red light to economists, Trump stopped chest thumping long enough to focus on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, describing the war as “limited” to cushion the financial fallout from his own poor judgment. It’s too early to know whether the potential nightmare scenario — closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran controls — will happen, pushing oil prices high enough to trigger a world recession. But while Hegseth continues to strut like a rooster with an AK-47, recession is the least of our worries.Lethality over objectives Hegseth says victory is all about lethality, or killing the enemy. It’s like watching a caveman trying to play chess. Long-term geopolitical success requires achieving realistic and sustainable political objectives at a reasonable cost. Neither Hegseth nor Trump comprehends that the U.S. did not lose in Iraq and Afghanistan because we lacked “lethality.” We lost because the objectives we sought were unattainable given political realities on the ground. Those same political realities are rampant in Iran, including:Extreme sectarian and tribal divisions.Worsening fragmentation among ethnic minority groups like the Kurds, Baluchis, and Azeris.A growing humanitarian crisis, including insufficient water, that will trigger massive refugee movements and overwhelm regional resources.Ideological, religious paramilitary fighting forces like the Basij and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).Trump’s focus on oil while Hegseth obsesses over lethality exposes the folly: They’ll never navigate geopolitical complexities they can’t understand.A game until someone gets hurtIn his book The War on Warriors, Hegseth complained that American troops are too wedded to rules. “Modern war-fighters,” he urged, shouldn’t worry about rules of engagement. Instead, Hegseth counseled, “America should fight by its own rules.” Hegseth’s own rules serve up death and destruction as entertainment. One official government account depicted the war in Iran with Call of Duty gameplay interspersed with real footage of Iranians being killed. As if war were a video game, the post showed a player racking up a string of kills. Another social media post interspersed clips from Braveheart, Gladiator, Superman and Top Gun with real kill-shot footage from Iran.Hegseth may think he’s still a Fox News personality whose job is to turn tragedy into entertainment, but for serious military strategists, the messaging is appalling and dangerous. Hegseth endangers AmericansHegseth’s strutting displays of manosphere bluster may attract basement incels and Fox News viewers, but over the long haul, they are dangerous. Gaining the upper hand on an enemy’s morale is a valid objective; it can be decisive in competitive contexts to create “a contagion of despair.” Napoleon Bonaparte said morale “is to the material as three is to one.” But you have to know your enemy first.Trump and Hegseth don’t seem to understand that vast cultural differences sent us home from Iraq and Afghanistan with our tails between our legs. A fundamental ignorance of those societies led to U.S. failures in both wars — the U.S. never adapted to local dynamics, leading to increased insurgencies, alienation of the people, and the inability to build stable local governments.Boots on the ground Trump has said he is open to putting boots on the ground in Iran, which would mean our troops encountering Islamic fighters who sincerely believe that “death to Americans” will get them into heaven. Iran’s primary military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), acts as an expeditionary force through its Quds Force, and manages a vast network of regional proxies including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. The IRCG acts as the hub among Islamist militant groups throughout the Middle East, motivating terrorists who are violently opposed to the United States.These Muslim forces believe “jihad,” or armed struggle, is the highest form of religious devotion, one that offers a guaranteed path to salvation and atonement, which the IRGC reinforces through steady indoctrination. The IRGC will likely use Hegseth’s rhetoric and video game posts as recruitment tools: Look how the Great Satan is slaughtering our children and laughing.Hegseth’s videos will be useful to Iran as the IRGC exploits nationalistic and religious sentiments among terrorists. Iran will use Hegseth’s hubris against us, and the danger will not be limited to war zones. As we learned on 9/11, jihadist groups are the main perpetrators of suicide attacks worldwide. Hegseth is goading them into action.Sabrina Haake is a columnist and 25+ year federal trial attorney specializing in 1st and 14th A defense. Her Substack, The Haake Take, is free.
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