Russia Poised To Profit As Middle East War Disrupts Energy Markets

Russia is poised to be a major beneficiary of the US‑Israeli military operations against Iran, despite ongoing efforts to curb Moscow’s revenue from its so‑called shadow fleet by the European Union (EU) and the US.
The three-week conflict has tightened global energy markets, disrupted LNG flows, and weakened sanctions enforcement. These developments will strengthen Russia’s position as a major oil and gas exporter as countries scramble to find energy supplies.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have threatened the flow of 60 million tons of oil and 7 million tons of LNG per month. This war has rattled international energy markets.
Oil prices surged to over $100 per barrel. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Northwest Europe are up 96% in the last month.
Source: TradingView
The price rally directly translates into stronger state revenues for Moscow.
Russia’s average fossil fuel export earnings have totaled an estimated €510 million per day, a week after Israeli-US airstrikes on Iran, Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said on March 12. That is 14% more than February’s daily average, it said.
“The benefit could be meaningful in the short term because Russia gains both from higher prices and from some easing in the practical enforcement of sanctions,” Carole Nakhle, founder of Crystol Energy, said. “But the upside is still constrained.”
Russian crude held on tankers fell to 118.3 million barrels this week, from 132.9 million barrels at the end of February, Kpler data showed. This suggests that cargoes have moved to buyers more quickly.
Europe May Increase Russian LNG Imports
The war, with no clear signs yet of ending, may force Europe to increase its imports of Russian LNG. This would slow plans by the European Union (EU) to phase out imports of LNG by January 1 next year.
Iranian attacks ‌against Qatar have knocked out 17% of its LNG export capacity. This caused an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue. This will threaten supplies to Europe, QatarEnergy’s CEO and state minister for energy affairs told Reuters on Thursday.
“EU gas security now depends more on the global LNG market,” Brussels-based Bruegel analysts wrote on March 11. “If global gas demand rises or supplies are disrupted, the risk will show up in higher prices and stronger competition for cargoes, rather than in physical shortages.”
In February, the five largest EU importers of Russian fossil fuels paid Russia …Full story available on Benzinga.com

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