Raoul Pal, the CEO of Real Vision and one of crypto’s most prominent macro voices, said that he believes recessions are no longer structurally possible.
“I don’t think recessions are possible anymore,” Pal said on Forward Guidance. “We’d have a huge slowdown, but they don’t allow that to happen.”
Prediction market bettors disagree. Polymarket’s U.S. recession contract is trading at 36% for a downturn by year-end, up from a low of 21% in January. Mounting concerns over private credit and the ongoing war in Iran have driven this steady climb.
Why Pal Says It Can’t Happen
His argument centers on what he calls the post-2008 playbook. Central banks discovered that injecting liquidity raises collateral values, and they will never allow that process to reverse. If the S&P 500 falls by more than 25%, liquidity returns. The cost, …Full story available on Benzinga.com
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