NEW DELHI: Many parts of the country may not be hotter than usual during April-June summer season due to normal to ‘below normal’ maximum (day) temperatures but most parts in east, northeast and coastal Peninsular India are likely to get two to eight days of extended heatwave duration, the IMD said on Tuesday.“Above-normal heatwave days are expected over Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Tamil Nadu and northern parts of Karnataka during April to June,” said IMD’s chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra while releasing seasonal outlook for the three-month period.The forecast map, released by the Met department, shows additional heatwave days even in Delhi-NCR but the occurrence is most likely to be confined in May-June as April in many parts of India, including northwest, may experience above-normal rainfall due to prevailing and predicted western disturbances.Heatwave is considered if the maximum temperature of a weather station reaches at least 40 degree Celsius or more for plains and at least 30 degree C or more for hilly regions. Many parts of plains normally get three to five days of heatwave during April-June period.The most parts of the country which may get below normal temperatures during the days are, however, likely to have warmer nights. “During the season (April-June), above-normal minimum (night) temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely,” said Mohapatra.
Though the IMD chief preferred not to say anything about the monsoon season at this juncture, the latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggest that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are most likely to continue during April to June.“Thereafter, the probability of development of El Niño conditions increases gradually,” said IMD — an indication that its adverse impact on rainfall may hit later part of monsoon season during Aug-Sept.
IMD is expected to come out with its first stage forecast on this year’s monsoon rainfall sometime around mid-April.IMD data shows as many as 45 human deaths due to extreme weather events across many states in March. Lightning caused the maximum 32 deaths in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Kerala.Speaking about March, Mohapatra said eight Western Disturbances (WDs) impacted India during the month, against the normal of 5-6.Six WDs impacted northwest India during March 11-31, causing light to moderate rains with thunderstorms, lightning, gusty winds and hailstorm over northwest & adjoining central parts of the country.The large-scale thunderstorm activity occurred in many parts of the country mainly during the second half of the month and it led to reduction in maximum temperatures over most parts of India.
