OPINION — Senior policymakers, military leaders, technologists and narrative strategists had one thing on their minds as they gathered in a Reston conference room last week – how decision advantage, psychological leverage, and narrative dominance are increasingly capable of determining strategic outcomes. Cognitive warfare – once treated as an adjunct to cyber or information operations – is becoming a primary instrument of power and the implications are profound.Clausewitz wrote that the center of gravity in war is the source of an adversary’s strength. In today’s environment, that center of gravity is increasingly ideological and psychological. Unity and will – both domestic and allied – are strategic assets. Information is not merely a supporting function. It’s a weapon.The contest unfolding in the gray zone is fundamentally about narrative. Not propaganda in the blunt Cold War sense, but sustained, cumulative influence campaigns that shape how populations interpret reality. These efforts operate across media, social platforms, text messaging networks, gaming environments, and increasingly, AI-driven platforms.Subtle Corrosion Beats Spectacular AttackOne of the most important insights shared last week centered on the cycle of desensitization. Consider the steady drumbeat of cyber intrusions attributed to China or Russia. Each incident sparks temporary outrage, but repetition normalizes the activity. Over time, the public and sometimes policymakers, stop reacting. Strategic corrosion sets in.This is cognitive attrition. It does not rely on a single catastrophic blow. Instead, it leverages small, atmospheric messages that accumulate. A fabricated report of a measles outbreak in Ukraine, spread via text messages. Repeated claims that Western institutions are corrupt or incompetent. False narratives injected into local conversations. Individually trivial. Collectively transformative.The cumulative effect resembles what some participants described as a “cognitive supply chain”- disinformation introduced through multiple channels, actors, and devices over time, reinforcing itself until it feels like truth. In this environment, the question is not simply whether a narrative is false. It is whether the repetition of that narrative alters perception faster than truth can catch up.If traditional principles of war emphasize mass and maneuver, today’s information battlefield demands speed, scale, and persistence. Speed, because narratives form quickly and harden fast. Scale, because digital transport layers allow messages to reach millions instantly. Persistence, because influence is cumulative. It rewards actors willing to repeat, reinforce, and adapt.Military leaders are increasingly recognizing that communications is not a peripheral function, it is a commander’s business. Every action or inaction is an information operation. Tone, repetition, and secondary amplification matter as much as initial statements. And dominating that narrative requires dominating the transport layers that carry it. That includes terrestrial networks, undersea cables, satellite infrastructure, and increasingly, space-based assets. Space is not peripheral to information warfare; it is foundational.Another critical component to consider is that of attribution. In the cyber domain, attackers benefit from ambiguity. If malicious actors can hide behind plausible deniability or if governments can shield them, deterrence collapses. Credible attribution raises costs. It narrows safe havens. It signals resolve.Some countries are beginning to codify this posture. Latvia, for example, has criminalized election-related fake news and deepfakes, recognizing that information manipulation is not abstract speech but a direct threat to democratic integrity. The United States faces a harder question: are our legal and institutional structures optimized for cognitive deterrence? Or are they still calibrated for a previous era of warfare?The Rise of Agentic SystemsIf the cognitive domain is decisive, technology will be central.The next frontier is not simply artificial intelligence, but agentic architecture – systems capable of augmenting commander decision-making in real time. The goal is not automation for its own sake. It is better recommendations. Faster synthesis. Clearer visibility.Architecture matters and open, modular systems are essential. Black boxes are strategically dangerous. Defense institutions need plug-and-play capabilities that allow integration of new tools as threats evolve.Reliability, not feature proliferation, should guide procurement – think more Amazon.com rather than bespoke. Outcome-based acquisition must replace programmatic inertia. A culture of velocity must supplant a culture of compliance.In Afghanistan, smaller, foreign terrorist organizations were easier to degrade than deeply embedded, locally rooted movements like the Taliban. Structure mattered. Networks with widespread local integration were far more resilient. The same principle applies to narrative ecosystems. Loosely connected but culturally embedded influence networks are harder to disrupt than centralized propaganda hubs.If adversaries build durable cognitive infrastructure across diaspora communities, digital platforms, and local influencers, countering them requires more than takedowns. It requires building alternative narratives and actions with comparable persistence and legitimacy. Cognitive advantage requires a network of networks approach (think private-public), operating at the intersections of shared security interests.Cultural Terrain Is Strategic TerrainPerhaps the most underappreciated shift in today’s information environment is cultural. Gaming now plays a role similar to Hollywood’s influence after World War II. Streaming platforms dominate storytelling. Media consumption patterns are fragmented and algorithmically curated. Stories remain, as one speaker observed, “the fuel of the human soul.”For decades, institutions like Voice of America succeeded because audiences sought out American content. The positive narrative of opportunity and possibility carried weight. In today’s environment, focusing solely on countering adversaries may be insufficient. Affirmative narratives about democratic resilience, economic opportunity, and alliance strength remain strategic assets. If the center of gravity is ideological, then cultural confidence is not soft power. It is core power.None of this is executable without human capital. Building a cognitive arsenal requires building a cognitive workforce – professionals who are fluent in AI, media ecosystems, psychology, geospatial intelligence, and policy. Upskilling is not optional. Institutions must cultivate interdisciplinary talent capable of integrating technology and narrative strategy. They must also accelerate collaboration across government, private sector, and research institutions. And Government is looking to the private sector for training, skill development, and use of advanced technology, methods and applications. The adversary does not operate in stovepipes. Neither can we.The most important question raised at that conference in Reston may have been the simplest: Are we structured to enact our own strategy?The United States possesses extraordinary technological and intellectual advantages. But advantages unrealized are advantages lost. If cognitive warfare is indeed the new frontier of power, then institutional adaptation- not incremental reform – will determine success. Speed, modularity, reliable attribution, cultural fluency, and decision-centric AI must move from theory to practice. Because in this domain, the battlefield is not a distant theater. It is perception itself. And perception, once shifted, is far harder to reclaim than territory.The Pinnacle Conference was hosted by The Information Professionals Association, The National Center for Narrative Intelligence and The Cipher Brief at the Carahsoft Conference & Collaboration CenterAre you Subscribed to The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel on YouTube? There is no better place to get clear perspectives from deeply experienced national security experts.Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.
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