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By Rath Wang 王健智
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In her victory speech on Sunday after her party won its largest post-World War II parliamentary majority, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reiterated her ruling coalition’s determination to tackle up front economic issues, and enhance national security and defense policy.
As soon as news broke that Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had won a supermajority, President William Lai (賴清德) and former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) congratulated her online. Both have expressed high hopes of further deepening Taiwan-Japan ties, and confidence in Takaichi’s leadership and vision in strengthening regional peace and stability.
Takaichi’s historic win would have a far-reaching impact on Taiwan. It brought back fond memories of Tsai’s 2016 landslide victory, and would surely boost deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.
Although Japan’s democracy follows a parliamentary model in which its leaders are not directly elected by voters, Takaichi had framed the election as a referendum on herself, asking those who support her to vote for her party and its candidates.
She has repeatedly said that the results of the election would serve as a mandate from the people to implement her policies.
Tsai and Takaichi are both female leaders who have received overwhelming support from young voters. To the next generation, they are seen as “cool” nontypical politicians who are not part of dynastic political family legacies, and are unafraid of enacting change, pursuing ambitious policies or standing up to intimidation from abroad — and in this case it is from the same neighbor, China.
Another similarity is how Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has responded. Tsai and Takaichi have experienced economic coercion through economic sanctions and tourist “hostage” measures that have not only miserably failed in swaying public opinion, but have boosted the leaders’ popularity at the polls.
One of Takaichi’s key goals is upgrading Japan’s defense capabilities and expanding the role of the country’s self-defense forces. That also includes an amendment to the constitution, the first of its kind since it went into effect in 1947.
Even late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, the popular longest-serving postwar prime minister, was unable to achieve that.
However, times have changed with a China that is ever more willing to show military aggression on Japan and other neighbors, and with a ruling coalition partner in the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) that is much more willing to expand the nation’s military and push back on China.
Takaichi has led her party to secure a considerable 316 seats, exceeding a supermajority by six seats, the largest of any LDP parliamentary win to date. She is leading a coalition of a combined 352 seats with the JIP. With a ruling partner that is on the same page when it comes to defense and a level of popularity that no other postwar prime minister could rival, her attempts to revise the pacifist constitution could come much sooner than later.
Her win also boosts her negotiating position for when she meets US President Donald Trump at the White House next week, a meeting in which Taiwan could be among the issues discussed. Trump has endorsed Takaichi several times and shares her vision of “peace through strength.”
Many analysts expect that once Takaichi addresses inflation and the economy, the top issue on voters’ minds, she would swiftly move on to bolstering national security and defense, and amending the constitution.
We have also already seen cues from Japanese Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi’s victory speech, in which he said the election results demonstrate a strong mandate from voters on national defense policy.
Takaichi is also pushing to create a US CIA-equivalent agency in Japan. As one of Taiwan’s closest neighbors, undoubtedly the most powerful in military might and economic clout, a Japan that is clearly focused on boosting regional security and deterrence, and one that is staunchly friendly to Taiwan, would make Beijing think even harder before staging an armed attack on the nation.
Rath Wang is a senior policy fellow at Safe Spaces, a consulting firm based in Taipei and Washington focusing on Taiwanese politics, media, civil society and key issues influencing the country’s future. He is a producer and host of political talk shows and podcasts, and has worked on political campaigns and advocacies in Taiwan, Japan and the US. He can be reached at [email protected].
