President Donald Trump got a harsh warning for a world expert in authoritarianism — he’s already made the same mistakes that destroyed dictators that went before him.New York University professor and renowned expert on dictators Dr. Ruth Ben-Ghiat wrote in the New York Times that Trump’s displaying behavior that mirrors the reigns of dictators like Italy’s Benito Mussolini — and it won’t end well.”History shows Trump’s worst impulses may backfire on him,” the article proclaimed.In a recent interview with the Times, Trump listed constraints on his authority as, “My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.”But Ben-Ghiat warned that mindset is exactly what has ended authoritarian leaders before him — and it might already be too late for Trump.This pattern reflects what scholars term “autocratic backfire.” Authoritarian leaders construct personality cults proclaiming infallibility while surrounding themselves with loyalists who suppress contrary information, she wrote. Isolated from objective feedback and expert counsel, such leaders implement unexamined policies that fail. “As autocrats surround themselves with loyalists who praise them and party functionaries who repeat their lies, leaders can start to believe their own hype. As they cut themselves off from expert advice and objective feedback, they start to promulgate unscrutinized policies that fail,” she wrote.”Rather than course correct, such leaders often double down and engage in even riskier behavior — starting wars or escalating involvement in military conflicts that eventually reveal the human and financial tolls of their corruption and incompetence. The result: a disillusioned population that loses faith in the leader and elites who begin to rethink their supportHistorical precedent illustrates this dynamic. Mussolini declared: “I follow my instincts, and I am never wrong” before invading Ethiopia in 1935. His generals observed that “the password among high-ranking Fascists became, ‘Tell Mussolini what he wants to hear.'” He continued escalating military commitments despite mounting losses, eventually leading Italy to bankruptcy and his own execution in 1945.Russia’s Vladimir Putin similarly overreached. When he invaded Ukraine in February 2022, he possessed significant regional power and influence. However, the conflict exposed Russian institutional weaknesses, forcing recruitment of foreign fighters and consuming nearly a quarter of Russia’s liquid assets in 2024. Former U.S. Ambassador Michael McFaul observed: “His autocracy at home and imperialism abroad has set them back decades.”Trump exhibits comparable patterns, Ben-Ghiat wrote. He has prioritized Greenland acquisition, White House renovations, Caribbean military operations, and immigration enforcement over addressing affordability and employment—issues that determine electoral outcomes. Republican strategists express dismay at his reduced popularity.But, critically, Trump operates within a functioning democracy, unlike Mussolini or Putin. He failed to consolidate power before declining in popularity and faces unlikely recovery prospects, wrote Ben-Ghiat. Americans reject his Greenland efforts and Ukraine policy approach. Aggressive Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations register as unpopular.”So it’s no surprise that the signs of a potential backfire are growing,” Ben-Ghiat wrote. “Unlike Mussolini and Mr. Putin, Mr. Trump still operates in a democracy. He was unable to consolidate power before becoming unpopular, and he seems unlikely to recover his higher approval ratings. A majority of Americans don’t support his efforts to gain control of Greenland and how he is handling the war in Ukraine. The brutality and thuggishness of masked Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents are also unpopular.”Mr. Trump’s behavior during a recent address to the nation suggests he is aware of cooling public sentiment. He shouted at times, as though he felt fewer people were listening. He repeated old lines about fixing the messes of others and newer lines about being a peacemaker, but the magic that brought so many to him may be dissipating. “Confidence fading. Can’t lie through the reality anymore,” Owen Shroyer, a former Infowars host whom Mr. Trump pardoned for his activities on Jan. 6, commented on X. “His base has turned. He knows it. Ego damaged. Swagger lost.””It is well documented that strongmen are at their most dangerous when they feel threatened. That is why, as popular discontent with the Trump administration’s actions deepens, Americans should brace for heightened militarized domestic repression and more imperialist aggression abroad.”The rules of autocratic backfire are clear. Even if a struggling strongman manages to stay in power, once his carefully crafted image is tarnished, a collective reckoning can begin with the costs of his corruption and lying. Once a leader proclaims, “I am the only one that matters” and sits alone at the top of the pinnacle of power, it is hard for him to escape blame, no matter how many officials and former friends he purges. He is more vulnerable to being removed or, at the very least, judged — by lawmakers, by courts, at the polls and, perhaps most lastingly, by history.”
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