President Donald Trump frequently justifies his claim that that the United States is the “hottest country in the world” by pointing to the stock market. But markets and investors disagree – and say Trump is the reason.The New York Times reported Tuesday that the S&P 500 Index (which is made up of the 500 largest companies in the U.S.) dipped by more than two percent by the end of trading, marking the biggest one-day drop for the index since October. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s VIX volatility index — which tracks uncertainty in financial markets – also marked its biggest single-day increase since November.According to the Times, Wall Street executives are increasingly bearish on stocks in the wake of Trump’s escalated rhetoric about potentially invading Greenland, even though the autonomous island territory already belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark (a key NATO ally). This is a marked change in how investors are viewing the Trump administration, with the Wall Street Journal reporting earlier this week that some on Wall Street were still betting on Trump to “chicken out” rather than actually act on his threats.Some institutional investors — like foreign governments and ultra-wealthy individuals – prefer to park their money in the form of U.S. Treasury securities rather than stocks, given that Treasury securities are typically seen as more stable and less likely to fluctuate in value. However, some bondholders are selling their stakes following Trump’s bellicose rhetoric, including the Danish fund AkademerPension. The Times reported that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield – which moves inversely to price — jumped up this week, meaning it has lost value. A jump in the 10-year yield is often seen as a predictor of recessions, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Some investors are reportedly eager for Trump to take initiative to lower the temperature and back off of his Greenland threats.”[Trump] has a path to lower rates and less controversial path with Greenland, but the question is will he take it?” said Andrew Brenner, who is the head of international fixed income at the firm National Alliance Securities. He added that he has told investors to expect “major volatility” in response to Trump’s Greenland remarks.The president commemorated the first year of his presidency on Tuesday with a meandering 80-minute speech from the White House Briefing Room. When a reporter asked him what he ultimately plans to do about Greenland, Trump would only say “you’ll find out.”
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