CNN data guru reveals key metric that suggests midterm wipeout for Republicans

The low polling of Congress won’t matter much if American voters are furious with the president, CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, explained looking at new numbers. Speaking Monday, Enten explored the low approval of Republicans, showing that support for Democratic members has increased five points at the start of 2026. He noted that it was the same trend seen before the 2018 midterm elections when President Donald Trump lost power in Congress. He explained that in midterm elections, the voters more motivated are generally the ones who win. What is different in Jan. 2026 is that Democrats are 16 points higher than Republicans on motivation. In 2018 that number was just five points up from the GOP. One problem is that Democratic congressional leadership has lower numbers than GOP members. Enten said, however, that a lot of that disapproval is coming from Democratic voters themselves, who are angry with the congressional leadership. “Here is the key nugget when we’re talking about midterm elections: It’s about one person really, and one person only. And that is the president of the United States,” said Enten. “And take a look here. Choice for Congress. If you disapprove of Trump and 59 percent of voters in our poll disapprove of Trump of Trump, look at this 76 percent, about three and four, in fact, slightly more than three and four say they’re going to vote for the Democrats for Congress, compared to just 8 percent who say they’re going to vote for the Republicans for Congress,” Enten continued. “So yes, it is absolutely the case that congressional leadership on the democratic side is not well liked among Democrats compared to what we see historically and not well liked compared to what we see among Republicans.”The reality, he said, is that it may not matter given Trump is the head of the party. “The vast majority of Americans and voters don’t like the job that he’s doing,” Enten added, saying it reminds him of the 2010 midterm election. “There were a lot of folks who didn’t like what Republican congressional leadership was doing. And guess what?” Enten closed. “It didn’t matter because voters didn’t like the job that Barack Obama was doing back then, and they punished Democrats who lost control of the House. And one of the largest waves, in fact, the largest wave of either of our lifetimes.”Watch the segment below: – YouTube www.youtube.com

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