Copper was supposed to be boring, cyclical, and dependable. Companies would dig more when prices rise, pull back when they fall. But that playbook is breaking down, and that shift has been decades in the making.
Between 2015 and 2025, major copper discoveries were not just fewer, they were smaller. The industry couldn’t find deposits that moved the needle. Exploration budgets recovered after 2020, but the results didn’t. The world is no longer stumbling across Escondidas or Grasbergs. Most “new” copper today comes from drilling deeper, wider, or longer around deposits that were already known decades ago.
Expansion Over Exploration
That shift isn’t accidental. S&P Global’s research has shown that over the past years, miners have increasingly favored expanding existing operations rather than pursuing greenfield discoveries. It’s safer, easier to finance, and usually faster — at least on paper. Brownfield expansions don’t require building roads, ports, or social licenses from scratch.
The downside is obvious. Squeezing more out of aging systems, often at rising cost and falling grade.
Codelco is the poster child of this trend. As the world’s largest copper producer, it now needs roughly $5 billion a year in capex just to keep production flat. Not grow, just maintain. Ore grades are …Full story available on Benzinga.com
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