Reform UK has had a mixed night at the ballot box after losing one of its Derbyshire seats and picking up an additional ward in the East Midlands county. Following last week’s victory in Gosport, Reform UK was forced to go defensive after a by-election was held in Horsley. Reform UK’s Richard Morgan, who stepped down due to health reasons, was elected to represent the ward last May, securing 1,401 votes and opening up a 321-vote lead over the Green Party in second.However, the Greens claimed the ward after surging by more than 16 per cent, with Lian Pizzey establishing a 250-vote majority over Reform UK’s Juliette Stevens.
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Reform’s vote share marginally ticked up by 0.6 per cent, albeit not by enough to stem the tide of anti-Reform voters coalescing behind the Green Party.Labour’s support slumped by 6.5 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats also dropping by two per cent. However, it was also a bad night for the Conservative Party, with its candidate Amanda Paget losing nine per cent from the Tories’s previous vote share. The result appears to have reflected Reform UK’s struggles in the Caerphilly by-election last October, when progressive voters looked to block Mr Farage’s victory by uniting behind Plaid Cymru. It could prove catastrophic for Reform UK if emulated across the country at a general election, with Mr Farage facing growing calls to ‘Unite the Right’.Analysis by Electoral Calculus last year suggested Reform UK could lose 67 seats if tactical voting becomes a cornerstone of the next general election.Uniting the Right could push Mr Farage over the finish line, although Reform UK is convinced it will prove strong enough to win in 2029 without the support of the Tory Party.However, a by-election held in Amber Valley’s Codnor, Langley Mill & Aldercar ward does not appear to have reflected a similar trend for Labour.Reform UK more than doubled its vote share to surge to 45.6 per cent of the vote.Meanwhile, Labour’s support halved from around 40 per cent to just 19.1 per cent. The Green Party and the Tories also dipped further, dropping by 5.9 and 15.3 per cent respectively. LATEST DEVELOPMENTSKemi Badenoch faces first electoral test since Shadow Cabinet defections in bumper by-elections cropThe way to defeat those 20mph limits is local referendums. Over to you Farage – Kelvin MacKenzieFive ‘big Labour figures’ who could join Reform after Nigel Farage postpones defection announcementBoth results also saw Ben Habib’s Advance UK appear on ballots for the first time. Mr Habib, who left Reform UK after being removed as its deputy leader, is looking to poach voters from Mr Farage’s party after garnering more than 30,000 members. However, Advance UK struggled to leave its mark in its first two showings on the campaign trail. The Horsley by-election saw Advance UK receive just 1.9 per cent of its vote share, with just 57 people putting their faith in Mr Habib’s party.However, the Codnor, Langley Mill & Aldercar by-election saw a much stronger showing.While Reform UK hoovered up 45.6 per cent of the vote, Advance UK received just 12.3 per cent of the vote.Despite suffering two bruising defeats this week, Advance UK has five local councillors across the UK.The figure puts Advance UK on the same footing as local independent groups, including the Party for Poole People and Morley Borough Independents. Meanwhile, Reform UK now holds 963 council seats, putting Mr Farage ahead of the Green Party in 897. Mr Farage is expected to hoover up more wards on May 7, with 5,036 council seats up for grabs. Polling conducted by JL Partners found that Reform UK would have won even more seats if Sir Keir Starmer had not pushed ahead with cancelling votes for four million Britons. Reform UK would have picked up 129 seats across the councils expected to postpone polls, with the Greens also snatching 44 seats.However, Labour would lose 93 wards, the Tories would drop by 48 and the Liberal Democrats would lose two seats.
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