Arthur Hayes is positioning for a 2026 liquidity rebound, arguing that Bitcoin’s weak 2025 wasn’t a referendum on “crypto narratives” so much as a straightforward dollar-credit story. In his latest essay, “Frowny Cloud,” the Maelstrom CIO says he is adding risk via Strategy (MSTR), Japan’s Metaplanet, and Zcash (ZEC) as he expects US dollar liquidity to inflect higher after a year in which Bitcoin lagged both gold and US tech stocks. Hayes frames 2025 as an awkward year for the standard cross-asset shorthand that treats Bitcoin as either digital gold or a high-beta proxy for US tech. In his telling, Bitcoin behaved “as expected” under tightening conditions, while gold and the Nasdaq 100 rose for different reasons despite falling dollar liquidity. Related Reading: Here’s Why Bitcoin Volatility Sparks Fresh Attention On MicroStrategy He argues gold’s bid is being driven by sovereign balance sheets rather than retail mania, rooted in distrust of US Treasury exposure after prior asset-freeze precedents. “If the US president steals your money, it’s an instant zero. Does it then matter what price you buy gold at?” he writes, casting central banks as price-insensitive buyers. On equities, Hayes leans into an industrial-policy interpretation of the AI trade. His claim is that the US and China have effectively treated “winning AI” as strategic, dulling the usual market discipline and helping explain why the Nasdaq decoupled from his dollar-liquidity index in 2025. That divergence matters because it sets up his core takeaway for 2026: Bitcoin needs expanding dollar liquidity to regain momentum. “Bitcoin and the Nasdaq rise when dollar liquidity expands. The only problem is the recent divergence,” Hayes writes, before returning to the “vicissitudes of dollar liquidity” as the primary driver he wants to track. The Three-Pillar Liquidity Pitch Hayes’ 2026 outlook hinges on a sharp rebound in dollar credit creation. He cites three channels: a growing Fed balance sheet via Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), commercial-bank lending into “strategic industries,” and lower mortgage rates catalyzed by policy-driven demand for mortgage-backed securities. In his account, quantitative tightening faded as a dominant headwind in late 2025, with QT ending in December and RMP beginning as a new, steady buyer. He claims RMP “at a minimum” expands the balance sheet by $40 billion per month, and expects that pace to rise as government funding needs increase. The second leg is bank credit creation, which he says accelerated in 4Q25, with large lenders willing to extend loans where government equity stakes or offtake agreements reduce default risk. The third is housing: Hayes points to Trump-backed directives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to deploy $200 billion toward MBS purchases, arguing that lower mortgage rates could unlock a familiar wealth effect and, by extension, more credit. Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation Continues: Strategy Purchases 1,287 BTC Amid Rising Prices He ties the pieces together with a simple conclusion: if liquidity turns, Bitcoin should follow. “Bitcoin … and dollar liquidity bottomed around the same time,” he writes, arguing that the next major leg depends less on sentiment than on renewed credit expansion. MSTR, Metaplanet, And ZCash Hayes describes himself as a “degen speculator” and says Maelstrom is already “nearly fully invested,” but he still wants “MOAR risk” to capture upside convexity if Bitcoin reclaims higher levels. Rather than using perpetuals or options, he says he’s long Strategy and Metaplanet for levered exposure via corporate balance sheets. His timing argument is valuation-relative: he compares each company’s “DAT” to Bitcoin priced in the relevant currency (yen for Metaplanet, dollars for Strategy) and says those ratios sit near the low end of the past two years, after being “down substantially” from mid-2025 peaks. He adds a key condition: “If Bitcoin can retake $110,000, investors will get the itch to go long Bitcoin through these vehicles. Given the leverage embedded in the capital structure of these businesses, they will outperform Bitcoin on the upside.” He also flags continued accumulation of Zcash. Hayes argues the departure of developers at Electric Coin Company (ECC) is not bearish: “We continue to add to our Zcash position. The departure of the devs at ECC is not bearish. I firmly believe they will ship better, more impactful products within their own for-profit entity. I’m thankful for the opportunity to buy discounted ZEC from weak hands.” At press time, MSTR traded at $179.33. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
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