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By Daniel F. Runde
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Honduras’ election has opened a diplomatic moment that Taiwan cannot afford to ignore. Tegucigalpa’s 2023 decision to switch recognition from Taiwan to Beijing was a setback, but it is not irreversible.
The incoming government in Honduras faces the same stubborn challenges that made China’s sweeping promises appealing in the first place — migration pressures, energy insecurity and limited foreign investment. Taiwan has an opportunity to make a unique offer consisting of credit lines and export credit. The offer should be strategic, well-structured, and large enough to command the attention of Honduras and other nations in the Western hemisphere.
Taiwan’s development assistance has traditionally been modest when compared with the offers that Beijing promises. Taiwan in 2023 spent US$468 million on official development assistance. Taiwan often delivers between US$20 million and US$40 million annually to its remaining diplomatic partners. This is a respectable figure, but it is not enough when measured against Honduras’ economic and political needs. Honduras previously asked Taiwan to double its aid to the nation to US$100 million.
If Taipei wants to reverse Honduras’ diplomatic pivot, it must think on a larger scale. A four-year package worth about US$400 million to US$500 million would be proportionate to the foreign policy stakes. Honduras re-establishing ties with Taiwan and the economic benefits for Taiwan should make this a no-brainer. A serious package would show that Taiwan is ready to match its strategic rhetoric with real economic partnerships.
A compelling package for Honduras should avoid simple budget support. Foreign aid is far less interesting than meeting needs by financing energy, infrastructure and other development goals. Taiwan could use its assistance to expand industries in Honduras such as textiles and technology, or develop education partnerships and workforce development initiatives. What Tegucigalpa needs is economic oxygen and credible paths to sustained growth. Taiwan has the tools, partners and comparative strengths that make this possible.
First, Taipei must establish direct flights to Tegucigalpa. Direct flights would send a powerful signal that the relationship is more than symbolic. Restoring aviation connectivity would make it easier for investors, students and supply-chain actors to move between the two economies. Taiwan could underwrite initial route risk or partner with airlines to establish a regular service.
Second would be manufacturing and export-sector support. Honduras has a nimble, but undercapitalized textile and light-manufacturing base. Taiwan’s development finance institutions could provide export credits, loan guarantees or coinvestment vehicles to help Honduran companies upgrade equipment and connect to larger markets. This approach is not charity, it is high-leverage economic diplomacy.
Then there is strategic infrastructure cofinancing. Instead of providing direct cash transfers, Taiwan could deliver targeted financing for projects that produce visible and long-term value. Two opportunities stand out:
A regional highway corridor that would strengthen Honduras’ integration with its neighbors and improve access to ports. Taiwan could join a consortium to finance segments of the project.
Support for gas pipeline development that links Honduran industry more closely with US energy markets. Taiwan’s development finance tools could help reduce risk for long-term financing and attract private participation.
Taiwanese ministries, universities and research institutes could expand cooperation in areas such as semiconductors, agricultural technology, vocational training and digital governance. These programs require modest funding, but deliver recurring political and economic benefits.
Finally, there is education. A structured exchange program would allow Honduran students to study in Taiwan through new scholarships, language programs and technical training pathways. These students would return home with skills that support Honduras’ long-term economic ambitions, as well as a deep familiarity with Taiwan’s democratic values and open markets.
Additionally, Honduras hosts Confucius Institutes, which serve as platforms for China’s cultural and political outreach. Taiwan should encourage alternative Taiwan Centers for Mandarin Learning that provide language education without pro-Beijing political messaging.
Guatemala has preserved its relationship with Taiwan while seeking expanded economic cooperation. El Salvador, which shifted to Beijing, has learned that promised Chinese investment often never materializes. If things go well with re-establishing ties with Taipei, perhaps El Salvador would reconsider as well.
Timing is critical. A multiyear package that is clearly announced and highly visible would give Honduran leaders something they can defend domestically and integrate into national planning. For Taiwan, it would show that its diplomacy is competitive with China’s, and that it relies on transparent and market-oriented tools rather than opaque arrangements.
Taiwan should act quickly and with confidence. A US$400 million to US$500 million package, spread over four years and focused on connectivity, industry and infrastructure, would give Honduras a strong incentive to reconsider its diplomatic alignment. It would also reinforce Taiwan’s reputation as a partner that delivers real value.
The presidential inauguration is scheduled for Jan. 27 next year. Taiwan should consider sending high level representation to signal what could be the next era of Taiwan-Honduran relations, but diplomacy rarely succeeds through symbolism alone. Taiwan could offer something more tangible. Honduras can see Taiwan not as a distant friend, but as a durable economic partner. Perhaps the delegation could arrive on a direct flight from Taiwan.
Daniel F. Runde is the author of the book The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power.
