By The Editorial Board / Bloomberg Opinion
As seen from Europe, the threat of global warming has plenty of competition these days. With the US causing geopolitical disorder, Russia still waging its war of conquest and far-right populism on the rise, distractions from the fight against climate change are everywhere. So it is impressive that the EU is maintaining its efforts.
Encouraging as that might be, the bad news is that the EU is still nowhere near on track to meet its stated climate goals.
Its target is net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. To that end, the bloc manages the world’s largest and most effective cap-and-trade system, imposing a carbon price of more than 60 euros per tonne on power plants and heavy industry, sectors that account for about 40 percent of the bloc’s total emissions. It has also introduced a border adjustment tax on carbon-intensive imports, to create a level playing field for competition within its single market.
Those policies have already run into strong resistance. Populist parties have exploited people’s legitimate concerns about the expense of clean technologies. Businesses have pushed back against regulatory burdens amid high energy costs, intense Chinese competition and looming US tariffs on EU exports. Yet for crucial industries such as steel and cement, even the EU’s relatively high carbon price is not enough to reduce emissions quickly.
The European Commission’s new Clean Industrial Deal aims to pick up momentum while reducing some of the burdens. The goal is still net zero by 2050. The plan is to harness government credit and procurement to boost supply of and demand for green products such as low-carbon steel and electricity-grid components. And there would be tens of billions of euros in subsidies to cut industrial emissions. Most controversially, it is aiming to free many smaller businesses from environmental reporting and accountability requirements, and from compliance with the carbon border tax. That is messy, but defensible. By focusing on the larger enterprises that account for most emissions and are best equipped to comply, the EU can expect to make more progress on emissions, create space for the competitive revival that its leaders also hope to achieve and soften the mounting political resistance. However, there is a trade-off: That approach surrenders some of the efficiencies that a straightforward carbon tax, applied to a broader base and set at a higher rate, would deliver.
Also, the Deal addresses only part of the needed green transition. Installing new grid and renewable-power capacity is essential. That would require epic EU-wide coordination, and trillions of euros in public and private investment. Without major initiatives such as a much larger EU budget, joint borrowing and a true European capital market, the 2050 net zero goal would remain out of reach. The bloc’s own environmental agency recognizes that current policies are not enough.
Germany’s new leadership has promised to devote hundreds of billions of euros to upgrading energy and other infrastructure. Some of its partners would follow that lead, but others would be unwilling or unable. Fiscal cooperation could help to put that right — but, for the moment, moving political power upward from national governments to Brussels is likely to be about as popular in Europe as higher energy bills.
Europe’s fundamental predicament in addressing the clean energy transition and its new security challenges is political. Its centrist leaders must demonstrate to voters that closer cooperation and deeper integration can deliver results. If they do not succeed now, they might not get another chance.
The Editorial Board publishes the views of the editors across a range of national and global affairs.