IMF Slashes US Growth Outlook As Trump Tariffs Bite, Raises Recession Odds To 40%

The International Monetary Fund has sharply downgraded its 2025 growth forecast for the United States, citing President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs and a surge in economic uncertainty as major headwinds.
In its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF now projects U.S. GDP growth at just 1.8% for the year, marking a 0.9 percentage point cut from its January forecast.
Roughly 0.4 percentage points of the downgrade is directly linked to Trump’s trade actions, while the rest reflects weakening domestic momentum that began even before the tariff shock.
“The tariffs represent a supply shock for the United States,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist. “They reduce productivity and output permanently, and raise price pressures temporarily.”
While the IMF still expects positive growth this year, it acknowledges that the risk of recession has risen substantially. Gourinchas said the IMF’s recession probability for the U.S. in 2025 has climbed to …Full story available on Benzinga.com

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