Reform UK has won a by-election in a council that was given the go-ahead to delay its elections in May.The shock result is significant for Nigel Farage’s party on two fronts. On the one hand, it suggests Reform would have had a strong turnout in West Sussex if local authorities had not requested to delay their election until next year under Labour’s devolution plans. It also implies that voters are punishing Labour at the ballot box for preventing constituents from voting for Reform in the May 1 elections. Under Labour’s devolution plan to turn two-tier councils in England into unitary authorities, nine were granted permission to delay their elections until next year so they can make the necessary structural changes.Reform UK blasted the move, accusing Labour of “colluding” with the Conservatives to thwart the insurgent party’s rise to power as the delays are in areas where a strong turnout is expected.Many constituents threatened to withhold their council tax out of protest and pledged to register their discontent at the ballot box. Reform’s latest by-election win can be read as a vindication of these grievances, as the Marine Ward, Bognor Regis seat sits in West Sussex – one of the nine council districts that were given the green light to postpone the election. Giuliano Pinnelli won 26 per cent of the vote, pipping Liberal Democrat Paul Wells to the post, who polled 25.2 per cent.Labour’s Alison Terry trailed in third with 20.1 per cent, followed by Conservative Diana Thas with 16.3 per cent, Green Party candidate John Erskine on 9.8 per cent, and Independent Phil Woodall on 2.6 per cent.The seat had previously been held by popular Independent councillor Jim Brooks, who passed away earlier this year.His personal vote had kept the seat independent for years, but Reform’s victory now shifts the balance.It also serves as an early bellwether of Reform’s showing next week, which will prove to be the first real test for the insurgent party as it attempts to enter Downing Street.LATEST MEMBERSHIP DEVELOPMENTSMAPPED: Five surprising crime-ridden EU hotspots where rape and murder is rampant – would YOU visit here?Could Starmer be forced to resign? Labour facing Red Wall wipeout WORSE than 2019 as Reform poised to better Boris blitzCould it be curtains for David Lammy after another humiliation as Foreign Secretary?A key part of the local elections will be the races for the four combined authority mayoralties.New YouGov polling gives Reform UK clear leads in the inaugural races for Lincolnshire and Hull mayors.Reform UK’s Andrea Jenkyns holds a healthy lead in her quest to become the first mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, with 40 per cent intending to vote for the former Conservative minister. This compares to 25 per cent currently supporting Conservative Rob Waltham and 15 per cent backing Labour’s Jason Stockwood.The Conservatives are projected to lose approximately 500 seats in the upcoming local elections on May 1, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK poised to make significant gains, according to a prominent pollster.Kemi Badenoch’s party is set to defend over 900 seats, while Labour will be contesting around 280, taking boundary changes into account.These local elections were last held four years ago, during a period of high support for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson, fueled by the success of the Covid vaccine rollout.However, Tory peer and pollster Lord Hayward now anticipates the party could lose between 475 and 525 seats, potentially reducing their total to around 375 to 425.
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