‘Blinking red light’: Ex-CIA analyst details MAGAs growing reliance on ‘independent armed factions’

Former CIA analyst Holly Berkley Fletcher spent many years studying governments in Africa, and she paid close attention to the tactics used in the more undemocratic ones — tactics that included using violent groups to bully, strongarm and intimidate political opponents.In an article published by the conservative website The Bulwark on March 14, Fletcher warns that the methods she observed in Africa are now being employed in the United States during President Donald Trump’s second term.Fletcher argues, “One of the great heartbreaks of the Trump era for me is seeing my expertise as an Africa analyst become relevant for understanding political trends in America…. As I was waiting for police to respond to a bomb threat at the Principles First conference last month in Washington, D.C. — the source of which is yet to be determined — I thought of yet another growing parallel: What technically would be called ‘informal security forces’ but what I, during my time as a CIA Africa analyst, colloquially called ‘guys.'”READ MORE: ‘A stupid fight’: Conservative blasts Trump for action ‘too absurd to believe’The former CIA analyst notes that in the African countries she analyzed, “guys” weren’t shy about using violence against political opponents.”When assessing risks to a country’s political stability or the endurance of a dictator’s power,” Fletcher explains, “one of my first questions was always, ‘Does he have guys?’ They can be anything from a hyper-loyal faction of regular security forces to a specially commissioned ‘presidential guard’ recruited from a particular ethnic group to a rag-tag gang of young men armed on the cheap and on the down-low. Most recently, they could include hired mercenaries from Russia or other countries.”Fletcher cites specific examples of how “guys” were used in Africa — and could now be used in the U.S. under Trump.”Most successful African political leaders in less-than-democratic systems have guys, from current dictators to wannabe dictators,” Fletcher observes. “Any dictator worth his salt will cultivate independent armed factions to counter any threats from the military or other potential challengers’ guys.”READ MORE: ‘Discontent’: Trump in big trouble with majority of voters — here’s whyFletcher continues, “Such groups have the added potential advantage of preserving the reputation of formal security forces in the eyes of the international community…. Sudan’s former dictator, Omar al-Bashir, created the janjaweed in the early 2000s in an ultimately failed effort to distance his regime from genocide in Darfur…. Across the border, South Sudan is awash in militias formed by various aspirants for President Salva Kiir’s job…. The late dictator of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, had his Presidential Guard, but he also had his mob of ‘war veterans’ who terrorized his opposition in exchange for license to forcibly seize whatever farms they wanted.”The former CIA analyst fears that in the U.S., far-right groups like The Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers could be used as “guys” by the MAGA movement.”The most obvious blinking red light is Trump’s mass pardon of the January 6th insurrectionists, including members of organized militias such as the Oath Keepers, the Three Percenters, and the Thugs Formerly Known as the Proud Boys,” Fletcher observes. “A court recently awarded their name to a black church they vandalized. Fresh out of jail, Enrique Tarrio showed up at the Principles First conference last month to menace former police officers Harry Dunn, Michael Fanone, Aquilino Gonell, and Daniel Hodges, who have been outspoken about their experiences fighting the mob on January 6th and who have been the targets of constant harassment ever since…. I was similarly horrified by reports that Elon Musk’s private security force now has federal law enforcement authority via the U.S. Marshals Service.”READ MORE: ‘Our cushion is gone’: Ohio farmers worry Trump won’t pay up on promised fundingHolly Berkley Fletcher’s full article for The Bulwark is available at this link.

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