The rise of drones — tactical, maritime and integrated drone missiles — and their application on the battlefield is fundamentally changing the character of warfare. Taiwan must be at the forefront of these shifts to leverage their potential, especially in boosting deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.
Drones are revolutionizing modern warfare, introducing new tactical and strategic dimensions, and providing smaller, less equipped forces with the ability to challenge and overcome larger powers, as seen with Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s invasion and the ousting of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad by rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
In an interview with the Guardian on Friday last week, Abu Hassan al-Hamwi, head of HTS’ military wing and coordinator of the various rebel factions, said that drones and a highly disciplined operation played a key role in overcoming the al-Assad regime’s superior military power.
The rebels used creative methods given their limited resources, such as employing engineers, mechanics and chemists, al-Hamwi said, adding: “We unified their knowledge and set clear objectives. We needed reconnaissance drones, attack drones and suicide drones, with a focus on range and endurance.”
Nowhere has the revolutionary impact of drones been more clearly demonstrated than in Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Ukraine has used huge masses of tactical drones — such as first-person view drones — that have created a partially transparent battlefield. This has boosted battlefield awareness and assisted in attacks against Russia’s high-value military assets, such as tanks and ships.
Most critical is the use of missile drones — cheap, precise and easy to use — providing capabilities previously unattainable for smaller forces. As Jared McKinney and Reiss Oltman wrote in Nikkei Asia in September, Ukraine has managed to sink much of Russia’s vaunted Black Sea Fleet without a navy, instead relying on a “mosquito fleet” of asymmetric weapons, such as anti-ship missiles, uncrewed surface vessels and TB-2 drones.
In a recent Institute for the Study of War report titled “A Defense of Taiwan with Ukrainian Characteristics: Lessons from the war in Ukraine for the Western Pacific,” Riley Bailey and Frederick Kagan wrote that Ukraine’s interdiction of the Russian Black Sea fleet demonstrated “that countries with few or no conventional naval capabilities can inflict defeats on countries with superior navies.”
Taiwan is heeding these lessons, such as with its procurement of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, its indigenously developed Hsiung Feng missile series and the creation of a drone alliance to secure drone supply chains and boost innovation. However, the nation could go further by ramping up funding.
It was reported in the Financial Times last month that government officials were in contact with US president-elect Donald Trump’s team about procuring up to US$15 billion in military hardware, including conventional platforms such as F-35 jets and Ticonderoga-class cruisers.
Possession of such advanced platforms is important, as they enable the nation to defend its territory, especially against the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s “gray zone” activities. They are also a significant morale booster for the military, send Beijing a strong signal of the US’ continued support and increase the public’s confidence in their armed forces.
However, national leaders should ensure they continue to procure the nation’s own asymmetric “mosquito fleet,” particularly drones as well as anti-ship and coastal defense systems. Such weapons would be cost-effective, provide greater tactical flexibility and be harder to detect. Focusing on these asymmetric capabilities would help to level the playing field against a much larger aggressor, as Ukraine and HTS have done.
