‘Cracks are showing’: Why ‘messy mix’ of ‘contradictions’ may sink Trumps coalition

During the 2024 presidential race, both of the two major candidates — Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris — attracted a variety of supporters. Harris’ coalition ranged from arch-conservative former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyoming) to self-described “democratic socialist” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont). Trump, meanwhile, rallied his longtime MAGA base but also received support from former Democrats like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and ex-Rep. Tulsi Gabbard.In the end, Trump received more votes, winning the popular vote for the first time and defeating Harris by roughly 1.5 percent nationally (according to the Cook Political Report). READ MORE: ‘Trolling for attention’: MAGA conspiracy theorist ramps up ‘virulent’ attacks on Trump allyIn an op-ed published by The Hill on December 27, Never Trump journalist Matt Lewis wonders if the president-elect can keep his 2024 “coalition” together.”Decades ago,” Lewis explains, “conservatives told a joke that went like this: If members of FDR’s New Deal coalition ever met in one place, a fistfight would surely break out. After all, what did a Rust Belt union worker have in common with a San Francisco gay rights activist? Or a northern liberal with a southern segregationist? And yet, that unwieldy coalition held together for decades.”Lewis continues, “Today, it’s MAGA that finds itself as the big-tent coalition full of internal contradictions. The question is: How long can it last?”The Never Trump conservative notes that the “messy mix” of 2024 Trump voters ranges from “rural farmers harmed by Trump’s tariffs” to “hawkish internationalists like soon-to-be Secretary of State Marco Rubio” and “non-interventionists like Tucker Carlson.”READ MORE: NJ Republicans fight over who is ‘most MAGA'”Among Trump voters,” Lewis observes, “you’ll find staunch pro-lifers alongside pro-choice voters who assume Trump secretly agrees with them; working-class Hispanics alongside immigration restrictionists who want mass deportations and an end to birthright citizenship; and populists who demand entitlements remain untouched alongside fiscal hawks calling for deep spending cuts. Holding this coalition together will be one of Trump’s greatest challenges in his second term.”The conservative journalist argues that “cracks are already showing” in this “coalition,” noting the “clash” between Trump and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) during recent spending bill negotiations. “For now, Trump’s evangelical base seems unshakable,” Lewis notes, “but newer members of the Trump coalition — such as pro-choice voters or working-class Hispanics — may be less forgiving if contradictions pile up. A Catch-22 of politics is the fact that once you start governing and making decisions, you’re almost guaranteed to alienate some of the people who put you in office in the first place.”Lewis adds, “It requires finesse to manage, and finesse isn’t exactly Trump’s strong suit.”READ MORE: Lauren Boebert’s replacement in her old district vows to be different — but not by muchMatt K. Lewis’ full op-ed for The Hill is available at this link.

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