In what appears to be a turning point in British political history, the Conservative Party is staring down the barrel of its worst electoral performance ever, according to a comprehensive survey. This extensive poll, which canvassed the opinions of 15,000 individuals to project seat-by-seat outcomes, suggests that the Conservatives are likely to secure victory in a mere 98 constituencies across England, facing a complete wipeout in Scotland and Wales.
Labour, under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer, is positioned to achieve a sweeping victory, potentially securing 468 seats, as per forecasts by Survation. This significant shift comes as the poll places Labour’s support at 45%, towering 19 points above the Conservatives’ 26%. This redistributes the political landscape significantly compared to the 2019 election results, where the Conservatives held 365 seats, Labour 203, with the SNP at 48, the Lib Dems at 11, and Plaid Cymru holding four seats.
The implications of this polling data extend to the highest levels of Conservative leadership, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak himself at risk of losing his newly formed Richmond and Northallerton constituency in North Yorkshire. His lead over Labour has dwindled to a precarious 2.4%.
The potential reshuffling doesn’t stop with the Prime Minister. Key figures within the Cabinet face the threat of losing their seats. Notables such as Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly, and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps are among those forecasted to be ousted. Conversely, figures like Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, along with former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and ex-Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick, are expected to maintain their positions.
The Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, finds himself in a tight race, holding a slim 1% lead over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash constituency. The presence of Reform UK further complicates the Conservatives’ prospects, with the party predicted to secure second place in seven constituencies, capturing 8.5% of the overall vote. Without Reform UK’s participation, projections suggest the Conservatives could secure up to 150 seats, a defeat nonetheless, but a scenario that might offer a foundation for rebuilding.
This poll’s findings resonate beyond mere numbers, signaling a potential “change election,” as described by Naomi Smith, CEO of Best for Britain. The data, gathered between March 8 and 22, employs a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process, aiming to deliver a detailed picture of constituency-level outcomes.
As the political landscape braces for potential upheaval, the coming months promise a period of intense scrutiny and debate over the future direction of the United Kingdom. With public sentiment seemingly pivoting towards significant change, the implications of these polling results could redefine British politics for years to come.
