In his first public remarks since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Hassan Nasrallah, the chief of the Lebanese Shia Islamist faction Hezbollah, is set to speak to his supporters. The address is anticipated to provide insights into Hezbollah’s impending actions, especially as skirmishes intensify between the group’s fighters and the Israeli military along the Lebanon-Israel border. This situation has heightened concerns over the area potentially becoming a new battleground in the ongoing conflict.
While the violence has been relatively confined till now, there are apprehensions this could change. Since the 7 October attacks by Hamas on Israel, which resulted in over 1,400 deaths, all eyes have been on Hezbollah. The group has escalated its offensives against Israel, although both parties have seemingly made efforts to prevent a larger conflict, concentrating most attacks within the border region.
Israel continues its land incursion into Gaza, aiming to neutralize Hamas. The death toll in Gaza has exceeded 9,000, as reported by the Hamas-managed health department. As Hamas solicits its allies to join the conflict, questions arise whether Hezbollah will heed these calls.
Designated as a terrorist organization by countries including the UK and the US, Hezbollah stands as the most formidable political and military entity in Lebanon. Hence, the group’s choices have ramifications not just domestically but also internationally. Nasrallah’s upcoming address, which has been publicized by Hezbollah as a momentous event, is keenly awaited.
Hezbollah’s 2006 month-long war against Israel lingers in the collective memory of many in Lebanon, raising concerns about another possible confrontation. The group’s objective includes Israel’s obliteration, and Israel views Hezbollah as a greater adversary than Hamas. The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has cautioned of a significant retaliation if Hezbollah instigates another conflict front.
The ongoing political and economic crises in Lebanon make the prospect of a full-blown war even more daunting, with limited public support for such an action outside Hezbollah’s base. Some analysts believe that while Hezbollah might escalate its attacks in response to Hamas, it might keep the confrontation restricted to northern Israel.
Amid these tensions, the Biden administration has been cautioning Iran against heightening the situation. Iran backs the Axis of Resistance alliance, which comprises Hezbollah, militias in Iraq, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas. The extent of Tehran’s direct influence over these groups remains ambiguous, but major decisions are likely made with Iran’s consent.
