If the Federal Reserve needed any encouragement toward easing, the latest ADP numbers are pushing in that direction. Instead of modest job gains, private employers shed 32,000 positions in November, with pay growth cooling to 4.4% year over year.
“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.
Zooming out provides a clearer picture. The Conference Board’s labor differential—which tracks those saying jobs are “plentiful” versus “hard to get”—has been sliding for months.
Late Cycle Dynamic
In fact, it has followed the classic late-cycle script almost perfectly: first a cooling in hiring, then softer wage growth, then sentiment rolling over.
That sequence has repeated across …Full story available on Benzinga.com
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