Bavaria, Germany’s largest state, is poised for parliamentary elections following an acrimonious campaign season marked by populist narratives and destabilization of long-standing political norms.
The far-right party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), currently in a tie for second place, has been at the center of controversy. While AfD leaders claim they have been physically threatened or attacked, critics argue the party is exploiting a narrative of victimhood for political mileage.
The heightened political temperature was evident when AfD co-leader, Tino Chrupalla, was hospitalized during a Bavarian rally. Although the party alleges it was a “physical attack” and speculates poisoning, authorities are yet to find evidence supporting these claims. Alice Weidel, the other AfD co-leader, has also raised security concerns, though her recent absence at a rally was later attributed to a vacation rather than security restrictions.
Bavaria’s Greens, on the other hand, have become targets for some right-wingers. Recent incidents involving the Bavarian Greens co-leader Katharina Schulze highlight the escalating animosity.
Apart from Bavaria, the state of Hesse also conducts parliamentary elections, positioning a significant 14 million Germans, a quarter of the population, in this pivotal electoral moment for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration.
Historically, Bavaria prided itself on its stability, largely governed by the conservative CSU since World War Two. However, shifting dynamics, like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s energy transformation, have unsettled the region. Despite avoiding major economic pitfalls, there is a pervasive gloom across the nation.
Hubert Aiwanger, leading the populist Freie Wähler (Free Voters), has successfully captured this sentiment, with his popularity remaining undiminished even amidst controversies. As the CSU struggles to retain its dominant position, parties like AfD and Free Voters are making significant inroads.
The combined might of AfD and Free Voters could amass over 30% of votes, dispelling notions that far-right populism is confined to East Germany.
Bavaria and Hesse’s elections pave the way for a slew of significant polls across Germany in the coming years. With mainstream parties floundering, Germany’s political landscape appears increasingly volatile, with populist forces gaining traction.