Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Wagner mercenary group, has publicly accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of starting the war in Ukraine in a recent video released on Telegram. Prigozhin’s video tirade marks a significant escalation in the ongoing public dispute between Wagner and the Ministry of Defence.
Prigozhin claims that the fighting in eastern Ukraine, which began in 2014 after Russia’s military intervention, continued for eight long years, with occasional fluctuations in the intensity of skirmishes. He contends that on February 24, 2022, there was nothing extraordinary happening in Ukraine and alleges that the Ministry of Defence is attempting to deceive the public, including President Vladimir Putin, by fabricating stories of Ukrainian aggression and a planned attack on Russia by Ukraine and NATO.
According to Prigozhin, the war in Ukraine was driven by personal ambitions, suggesting that Shoigu sought to obtain a higher military rank and additional accolades. Prigozhin also implicates oligarchs as being responsible for the conflict, condemning the influential group that he claims holds practical control over Russia.
The repercussions of Prigozhin’s outspoken criticism depend on his current relationship with President Putin, which remains uncertain. It is unclear whether Prigozhin’s actions align with a Kremlin strategy to shield Putin from public criticism and provide an exit strategy from the faltering conflict without damaging the president or the political system. Prigozhin has named Shoigu and oligarchs as the ones to blame, while Putin himself has been closely associated with the war. Putin publicly announced his decision to launch the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in his address to the nation on February 24, 2022.
The Kremlin’s control over the media landscape and messaging in Russia allows for the dissemination of a narrative that could shift blame away from Putin and onto other figures. If the interpretation put forth by Prigozhin were promoted by pro-Kremlin military bloggers and television channels, many Russians might accept it. However, if Prigozhin’s outburst was not coordinated with the Kremlin and instead reflects his own political ambitions, it could undermine the Kremlin’s messaging.
While it remains challenging to piece together the puzzle of Russian politics, there are indications that the Kremlin may consider declaring “mission accomplished” in Ukraine despite setbacks. President Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, recently claimed that the goal of demilitarizing Ukraine has largely been achieved, arguing that Ukraine is becoming increasingly reliant on foreign weapons and has fewer armaments of its own. Additionally, the ongoing trial of more than 20 Ukrainian soldiers from the Azov regiment in southern Russia, which Russia considers a “terrorist group” harboring neo-Nazis, could be portrayed as a step toward “de-nazification.”
However, there are other signs that Putin does not intend to halt military operations in Ukraine. In recent television appearances, Putin has expressed confidence in victory and has dismissed Ukraine’s counter-offensive, claiming that the enemy is suffering significant losses and stands no chance.
